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(2018) showed in an analysis that fast attacks and counterattacks also increased the success of an attack. (2012) showed that the effectiveness of the attacking play was discriminating between winning and losing in three World Cup tournaments (2002–2010). (2010) found that effectiveness was significantly higher for winning teams. They also showed a stronger correlation between goals and goal efficiency than between goals and number of shots. (2014) found that goal efficiency is more important than the quantity of shots. Goal efficiency and shots on goal were shown to be important factors for winning a football match ( Hughes and Franks, 2005 Brito de Souza et al., 2019 Lepschy et al., 2020). Regarding the independent variables the most studied variables with regard to success factors in football are shots and shots on goals followed by variables like goal efficiency (number of goals divided by shots), passing, and possession ( Sarmento et al., 2014 Lepschy et al., 2018). Therefore, more research is needed to close this gap in possible unidentified success factors.īesides a careful consideration of independent variables, a meaningful dependent variable needs to be selected. Moreover, in most studies, only a small selection of variables was used, and a possible effect of the home advantage was not always considered. None of those studies about World Cup matches used market value as an independent variable. Of these studies, only six used a predictive study design compared with 24 studies about club teams, which can provide more sophisticated conclusions ( Lepschy et al., 2018). Only 11 studies involving data of success factors from a World Cup were published in recent years ( Lepschy et al., 2018).
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Most studies focused on domestic leagues consisting of club teams, while studies on the performance of national teams at tournaments are sparse. Various attempts have been undertaken to identify and quantify indicators of performance, but results vary and are partly inconsistent. This understanding is in football as crucial as in other sports, but it is still a challenge to determine what leads to success in football. To understand the mechanisms underlying success in football is critical for coaches, players, managers, journalists, and other stakeholders. The study contributes to a better understanding of success factors and can help to improve effectiveness of training, match preparation, and coaching. Moreover, the results suggest that direct play and pressing were more effective than ball possession play. Overall, most of the critical success factors and those with the highest impact on winning close games were defensive actions. Ball possession, distance, and market value of the teams had no influence on success. The results showed that defensive errors ( p = 0.0220), goal efficiency ( p = 0.0000), duel success ( p = 0.0000), tackles success ( p = 0.0100), shots from counterattacks ( p = 0.0460), clearances ( p = 0.0130), and crosses ( p = 0.0160) have a significant influence on winning a match during those tournaments. Twenty-nine variables were identified from previous research. A total of 128 matches were analyzed using a generalized order logit approach.
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The current study examines the success factors during the World Cup 2018 in Russia and the World Cup 2014 in Brazil. Research on success factors in football focusing on national teams is sparse. Institute of Sports and Sports Science, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany.Russia, which made it into Pot 1 because it is the host country, is not grouped with any teams in the top 20, only one team in the top 30 (Uruguay), and the lowest-ranked team in the rest of the field (Saudi Arabia).Hannes Lepschy *, Alexander Woll and Hagen Wäsche * Group A, on the other hand, is being described as the "Group of Life" because of the lack of a dominant team. Group D also deserves some Group of Death mention, with Argentina, Croatia, Iceland, and Nigeria. 1 team in the world Mexico Sweden, which may have been the top team from Pot 3 and South Korea. Group F and Group D appear to be the toughest divisions. A handful of adjustments happened along the way to keep teams of the same region from being in the same group. Those were followed by the teams in Pot 2 and so on, with the lowest-seeded teams, in Pot 4, grouped last. In the draw, the 32 countries were divided into four "pots." The top seeds were all placed in Pot 1 and were the first to be assigned to groups.